Thousands of votes remain uncounted, but election returns indicate that Measure ULA, the City of Los Angeles’ controversial transfer tax measure, is on track for a big win — and the measure’s advocates are declaring victory.
“This victory is a victory for the community organizations who rallied to pass this measure. It is a victory for the community members who trusted the experts, not the politicians, to develop the best solutions,” April Verrett, a co-chair of the YES on ULA coalition said in a statement Monday evening.
“And it’s a victory over the millions of dollars of dark money that big real estate interests poured into lies that sought to undermine humane policy in the name of higher profits,” she added.
The measure will come into effect next year. The so-called “mansion tax” will add a significant new property transfer cost on residential and commercial sales worth more than $5 million.
In the most recent count, the measure was leading with 56 percent in favor. The difference comes out to roughly 75,000 votes, a margin that appears all but impossible to reverse even with potentially hundreds of thousands of votes left to be counted.
The latest count reflected numbers as of Monday afternoon. A more definitive tally could still be days away, mostly because of L.A. County’s large number of mail-in votes.
Measure ULA raises money by adding a one-time tax of 4 percent on all property deals in the City of L.A. above $5 million, with the tax rising to 5.5 percent on deals above $10 million.
It is intended as a new funding mechanism to address L.A. ‘s homelessness and affordable housing crises, with the revenue raised allocated toward affordable housing construction and rent and legal assistance for low-income residents.
The measure was staunchly opposed by many real estate groups and high-profile industry players, who argue the tax will cool L.A.’s commercial and high-end residential markets and even potentially backfire by making it harder to build certain residential projects in the city.
Some developers have already pulled out of projects, believing the tax means their numbers will no longer pencil, while industry analysts have pointed to a potentially larger market impact.
“At least at the margins, it’s going to hold some sellers back,” Jordan Levine, a California Association of Realtors economist, said earlier this fall. “It kind of undermines the broader growth in the housing market.”
Advocates, who are calling the tax “the largest housing ballot measure in American history,” argue it will raise as much as $1 billion dollars annually and impact only a small fraction of property deals — and the companies and owners who can most afford to pay.
Its supporters include a coalition of labor and community groups.
The tax will kick in on April 1. A similar measure is on track to pass in Santa Monica.
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